The AI arms race is reshaping our global security

Bojan Stojkovski is a freelance journalist who has been covering foreign policy and EU affairs for more than a decade. Based in Skopje, North Macedonia, he reports on technology, science, and environmental issues, as well as human rights and post-war societies in the western Balkan countries. His work has been featured in global media outlets such as Foreign Policy, Interesting Engineering, ZDNET, the Wall Street Journal, and Haaretz among others. c천지일보.For decades, technological supremacy has been a cornerstone of military power. Nuclear weapons, stealth aircraft, and precision-guided missiles defined global hierarchies. Today, however, AI promises not just an advantage, but a qualitative shift. It enables militaries to process vast amounts of data in real time, automate decision-making, and even act independently in the battlefield. The implications are staggering: nations that master AI in defense may dominate the strategic landscape, while those lagging risk exposure to asymmetric vulnerabilities.The global leaders in the AI arms raceThe US and China are leading this race, but in very different ways. The US has leveraged decades of experience in defense R&D, private tech innovation, and cloud computing infrastructure. AI-enabled drone swarms, predictive maintenance for fighter jets, and advanced cybersecurity systems are already being integrated into US military operations. China, meanwhile, has pursued a more centralized approach, combining state-led AI research with rapid prototyping and testing. The People’s Liberation Army has made clear that AI is a strategic priority, not just for technology superiority but for reshaping the very rules of engagement in future conflicts.Europe, despite its technological capabilities, faces a more complicated challenge. While the EU has invested heavily in AI research, ethical frameworks, and regulation, it lags behind the US and China in deploying AI for defense purposes. European nations, wary of autonomous weapons controversies, are cautious in implementing AI in combat. Yet geopolitical realities may force a reckoning: the Baltic states, Poland, and the Balkans - all close to flashpoints of Russian influence - cannot afford to fall behind in AI-enabled defense systems.One of the most visible manifestations of this AI arms race is in autonomous and semi-autonomous drones. The Ukraine war has highlighted the lethal efficiency of drone technology, from Turkish Bayraktar drones to Chinese-made loitering munitions. AI algorithms allow these systems to navigate complex terrain, distinguish targets, and coordinate in swarms without human intervention. In the wrong hands, these same technologies could destabilize regional balances of power or even enable rapid strikes across borders with minimal warning.Cybersecurity is another domain where AI is rewriting the rules. Machine learning can detect anomalies in networks faster than human analysts, anticipate attacks, and even automate countermeasures. Conversely, adversaries are developing AI-driven malware, deepfake disinformation campaigns, and predictive cyber strikes. The 2022–2025 period has already seen AI-assisted cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, from power grids in Europe to satellite systems in the Asia-Pacific region. For nations in strategic corridors, such as the Western Balkans, resilience in digital infrastructure is no longer optional - it is a matter of national security.In this photo from the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service, British soldiers launch a drone during Project Convergence exercises at Fort Irwin, Calif., on Nov. 4, 2022. With tensions high over Taiwan, U.S. and Chinese military planners are readying themselves for a new kind of war where battleships, fighter jets and amphibious landings cede prevalence to squadrons of AI-enabled air and sea drones. 2022년 11월 4일 미국 캘리포니아 포트 어윈에서 진행된 미 육군의 ‘프로젝트 컨버전스’ 훈련 중 영국 군인들이 드론을 발사하고 있다. 이 훈련은 인공지능(AI)·머신러닝 기술을 활용해 센서와 무기, 지휘통제 체계를 하나의 네트워크로 연결하는 미군의 차세대 전투 실험 프로그램이다. (출처: 뉴시스)The challenge of dual-use technologyThe dual-use nature of AI complicates the international landscape further. Unlike nuclear weapons or even hypersonic missiles, AI software can often be repurposed for civilian applications, from logistics to facial recognition. This makes arms control difficult. How can the world regulate an algorithm that powers both autonomous drones and commercial delivery robots? Existing export control regimes, such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, struggle to keep pace with the rapid dissemination of AI technologies. As a result, AI is proliferating faster than most governments can monitor, giving rise to potential vulnerabilities and new forms of asymmetric warfare.For small and medium powers, the implications are paradoxical. On one hand, AI offers an opportunity to “punch above their weight” by using smart technologies to offset numerical or conventional disadvantages. On the other hand, it exposes them to vulnerabilities if adversaries possess more advanced AI-enabled systems. For example, countries in the Balkans may find that AI surveillance, electronic warfare, or predictive logistics capabilities of neighboring powers could rapidly shift regional power dynamics. Maintaining strategic autonomy in such an environment requires both investment in AI and strong international partnerships.Furthermore, the ethical dimension of AI in warfare cannot be ignored. Autonomous systems raise pressing questions about accountability, human judgment, and the threshold for lethal force. International law, including the Geneva Conventions, has yet to fully grapple with the consequences of decisions made by algorithms. A single miscalculation in an AI-driven engagement could escalate a localized conflict into a broader crisis. For policymakers, balancing innovation with responsibility is a delicate task: investing too slowly risks falling behind, while reckless deployment risks unintended escalation.Yet there is a strategic opportunity embedded in this challenge. Countries that invest in AI not just as a military tool but as a broader governance and resilience capability can gain a competitive advantage. AI-powered intelligence platforms, logistics systems, and cybersecurity infrastructures can strengthen national defense without crossing ethical red lines. The EU’s focus on responsible AI, if combined with robust defense applications, could create a model for “ethical strategic power” in the 21st century.Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall sits in the front cockpit of an X-62A VISTA aircraft at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., on Thursday, May 2, 2024. The flight on the Artificial Intelligence-controlled modified F-16, is serving as a public statement of confidence in the future role of AI in air combat. The military is planning to use the technology to operate an unmanned fleet of 1,000 aircraft. Arms control experts and humanitarian groups are concerned that AI might one day be able to take lives autonomously and are seeking greater restrictions on its use. 작년 5월 2일 캘리포니아 에드워즈 공군기지에서 프랭크 켄달 미 공군장관이 AI로 조종되는 개조형 F-16인 X-62A 비스타 전투기 조종석에 앉는 모습. (출처: 뉴시스)A multi-layered approach for the futureIn practical terms, nations must pursue a multi-layered approach: developing domestic AI talent, incentivizing private-sector innovation, building secure infrastructure, and engaging in international standard-setting. Partnerships between established tech hubs and emerging markets, such as those in the Western Balkans, can accelerate adoption while mitigating risks. Regional defense collaborations, NATO AI initiatives, and EU-funded AI projects can ensure smaller states are not left behind in this fast-moving technological landscape.Public understanding is equally critical. Unlike nuclear weapons or conventional military platforms, AI is often invisible to the citizen. Its integration into security infrastructure, drones, or cyber defense is rarely dramatic or immediately visible, yet it has a profound impact on national safety and sovereignty. Educating the public, fostering debate, and creating transparency mechanisms can prevent panic while ensuring democratic oversight over sensitive AI applications.The AI arms race is no longer a hypothetical scenario - it is happening in real time. The rules of conflict, intelligence, and national security are being rewritten, and the stakes are higher than ever. For policymakers, defense planners, and citizens alike, the task is clear: invest wisely, regulate thoughtfully, and innovate responsibly. Nations that fail to recognize AI as a central pillar of strategic power risk being marginalized or exposed in the very conflicts that will define the 21st century.For the Balkans and Europe, the lesson is urgent. Proximity to geopolitical flashpoints, reliance on foreign tech, and historical vulnerabilities make AI not just a technological challenge but a strategic imperative. Harnessing AI responsibly can enhance deterrence, strengthen alliances, and secure national interests. Ignoring it, however, risks ceding influence to states that are faster, bolder, and more willing to integrate AI into the fabric of power.In the end, the AI arms race is a mirror reflecting the broader transformation of global power: faster, smarter, and increasingly automated. The future of security will be decided not just on the battlefield but in code, algorithms, and the ability to turn data into actionable insight. For nations ready to embrace the challenge, the payoff could be strategic stability and influence. For those that hesitate, the consequences could be profound, sudden, and irreversible.